Keeping Your Head Above Water

It's been awhile since we heard from Avril Lavigne. Like most, I was introduced to her through my sister and her friends who couldn't stop singing about Sk8er Bois and why things were so complicated. Her recent song "Head Above Water" is her best output in years. Vocally, she sounds better than I can remember her sounding. At times it has shades of Alanis Morissette, but it's clearly still Avril. Her voice sounds much more trained (unless it's auto-tuned, but I don't think so). If I have any complaint, it's that she starts the song out with power, when I feel like she should have built to there and done the first few lines a bit smaller. That would probably have been difficult given those notes, but I think she could have done it. Still, that's a minor quibble. I am impressed with her vocal overall for the rest of the song, hitting notes with a clarity that I'm not used to from her. This is no emo cheerleader rock; this is a solid (potentially Grammy-winning?) vocal performance.

And on a personal level, it hits a bit close to home mainly because I had a near-drowning scare as a child, so I'm drawn to drowning metaphors. For Avril, it's also a personal statement, as the song came out of her personal struggle with Lyme Disease, and a moment she feared she was going to die. That's why the video points to her foundation other resources about Lyme at the end. But whether as metaphor or literal drowning, it's a good song and I wanted to promote it.

And just for kicks, here's another little song which I relate to about near-drowning.

YHWH Yireh -- He is able to set a table

"Yes, they spoke against God:
They said, 'Can God prepare a table in the wilderness?
Behold, He struck the rock,
So that waters gushed out,
And the streams overflowed.
Can He give bread also?
Can He provide meat for his people?'

Yet  He had commanded the clouds above,
And opened the doors of heaven,
Had rained down manna on them to eat,
And given them of the bread of heaven.
Men ate angels' food;
He sent them food to the full.

He caused an east wind to blow in the heavens;
And by His power He brought in the south wind.
He also rained meat on them like the dust,
Feathered fowl like the sand of the seas;
And He let fall in the midst of their camp,
All around their dwellings.
So they ate and were well filled,
For He gave them their own desire."

-Psalm 78:19-20, 23-29

OSCAR NOMINATIONS - Who wins? Who should? Who was snubbed?

It's that time of year again, when the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences gathers to pat itself on the back for another year well done. As usual there are some surprises and some surprising omissions. Not a single nomination for Wonder Woman, though it was one of the more successful films of the year. That's not too surprising though, as the Academy doesn't like superhero movies. Anyway, time to go through the list of nominees in all categories, and I will try to pick a winner and who I would win.

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
The Big Sick
Get Out
Lady Bird
The Shape of Water
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

WILL WIN: The Big Sick is the clear favorite here. Considering this is the only nomination it got, I suspect it takes home the Oscar. However, I can also see the possibility of Three Billboards winning.

MY CHOICE: When I saw The Big Sick, the first thing I thought afterward was "well, that's getting a screenplay nomination". I have issues with the final film, but I would give the Oscar to it.

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Call Me By Your Name
The Disaster Artist
Logan
Molly's Game
Mudbound

Wow, surprising to see some love for Logan in this category, the only superhero movie to break through this year. It's also the only nomination it got. While that makes it a bit of a dark horse, I think this will be a case of "it's an honor to be nominated". The Academy loves Aaron Sorkin, so it's no surprise Molly's Game is here.

WILL WIN: Call Me By Your Name. Sorkin already has his Oscar, so I think they give it to the indie darling with the gay-themed romance.

MY CHOICE: I haven't seen every film nominated yet, but I think I'd give it to Logan. Molly's Game I had some real issues with the writing, particularly the voice-over. It changed tenses from past to present and back and I was never clear if it was meant to be from Molly's book or directed at the movie audience or talking to her lawyer or what. I thought it was uncharacteristically sloppy of Sorkin. So give it to the X-Men movie.

VISUAL EFFECTS
Blade Runner 2049
Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2
Kong: Skull Island
Star Wars: The Last Jedi
War For the Planet of the Apes

WILL WIN: This is a tough category. I suspect ultimately it will go to Planet of the Apes as the close of a trilogy and as much for the motion-capture work as anything. Then again, the two ape movies may cancel each other out.

MY CHOICE: Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 for the variety of different looks. It's not just standard flying ship stuff or character stuff; there are different sort of textures and things.

SOUND MIXING
Baby Driver
Blade Runner 2049
Dunkirk
The Shape of Water
Star Wars: The Last Jedi

WILL WIN: Probably Dunkirk. But there's a chance it goes to my favorite:
MY CHOICE: Baby Driver. The sound mixing award is for the final mix of all the sound together. Baby Driver is dependent on editing music with picture, as well as all the car sounds.

SOUND EDITING
Baby Driver
Blade Runner 2049
Dunkirk
The Shape of Water
Star Wars: The Last Jedi

WILL WIN: Dunkirk
MY CHOICE: Dunkirk

SNUBBED: Wonder Woman

LIVE ACTION SHORT
DeKalb Elementary
The Eleven O'Clock
My Nephew Emmett 
The Silent Child
Watu Wote

Okay, I have no idea because of course we rarely are able to even see the short films. So I'm basing this solely on the synopses on the Oscar website.

WILL WIN: DeKalb Elementary. Because it's about a school shooting, at a black school. So this will play up on Hollywood's favorite things: racism and gun violence. The other strong possibility is My Nephew Emmett, because it's about Emmett Till.

MY CHOICE: Watu Wote. It's about a Christian Kenyan woman on a bus full of Muslims that is stopped by terrorists. Sounds like something I'd like.

ANIMATED SHORT
Dear Basketball
Garden Party
Lou
Negative Space
Revolting Rhymes

WILL WIN: My guess is it goes to Lou, a very good Pixar short, and the Academy loves Pixar. And it's got an anti-bullying theme, which they probably like too.

MY CHOICE: Dear Basketball. Kobe Bryant (yes, Kobe Bryant) could get an Oscar if this wins. It's a lovely little love letter to basketball, autobiographical, animated in 2D sketch style by former Disney artist Glen Keane. I love Glen Keane. And if this one wins, it will mean some attention goes back to more traditional pencil and paper animation (though there's a little bit of CG assistance). If the Academy doesn't go with the safe choice, this one screams for the win.

PRODUCTION DESIGN
Beauty and the Beast
Blade Runner 2049
Darkest Hour
Dunkirk 
The Shape of Water

WILL WIN: Probably The Shape of Water, as there's a lot of love for that film right now.

MY CHOICE: Blade Runner 2049. I didn't see it, I don't much like Blade Runner, but production design is one of the few things this franchise has going for it.

ORIGINAL SONG
"Mighty River" from Mudbound
"Mystery of Love" from Call Me By Your Name
"Remember Me" from Coco
"Stand Up for Something" from Marshall
"This is Me" from The Greatest Showman

WILL WIN: The real race right now seems to be between "Remember Me" and "This is Me". The Academy likes songs that run thematically through the film, so that's in "Remember Me"'s favor, but the Greatest Showman song is popular right now and about acceptance and all, which the Academy also loves, and it's from the writers of last year's winner. So it's a coin toss, but I fear it goes to "This is Me".

MY CHOICE: "Remember Me"

ORIGINAL MUSIC SCORE
Dunkirk
Phantom Thread
The Shape of Water
Star Wars: The Last Jedi
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

WILL WIN: The Shape of Water

MY CHOICE: I really don't have a horse in this race this year. But maybe Dunkirk.

SNUBBED: Wonder Woman, but maybe that's because its main theme was written for Batman v. Superman and they thought it wasn't different enough.

MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING
Darkest Hour
Victoria and Abdul
Wonder

SNUBBED: The Shape of Water. Now, I didn't like this movie, but it is shocking to me that for all the nominations this film got, the obvious one should have been makeup. You've got a guy in fish-man makeup the whole time, not to mention the gore effects of stitched-on fingers and gunshot wounds. Pan's Labryinth won this award when it came out, and I just assumed this one would be nominated too since it's essentially the same.

WILL WIN: I don't know... Darkest Hour probably
MY CHOICE: I guess Wonder, which I didn't see, but at least that makeup is important to the story.

FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
 A Fantastic Woman
The Insult
Loveless
On Body and Soul
The Square

WILL WIN: No idea, but gonna say The Insult
MY CHOICE: Don't care, so yeah, The Insult, why not.

FILM EDITING
Baby Driver
Dunkirk
I, Tonya
The Shape of Water
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

WILL WIN: The Shape of Water
MY CHOICE: Baby Driver. The whole movie is editing!!!

I'll skip the Documentary categories as I have just no idea at all.

DIRECTOR
Christopher Nolan - Dunkirk
Jordan Peele - Get Out
Greta Gerwig - Lady Bird
Paul Thomas Anderson - Phantom Thread
Guillermo Del Toro - The Shape of Water

WILL WIN: Guillermo Del Toro. It's possible that it goes to Jordan Peele, but I think that's a long shot.

MY CHOICE: Greta Gerwig. So glad she was nominated. There was actually a lot of complaint during the other award shows that she wasn't nominated.

COSTUME DESIGN
Beauty and the Beast
Darkest Hour
Phantom Thread
The Shape of Water
Victoria and Abdul

WILL WIN: Phantom Thread. Because it's a movie all about fancy clothes. And the Academy loves period pieces for this category.

MY CHOICE: Phantom Thread, I guess.

SNUBBED: Baby Driver and Wonder Woman

CINEMATOGRAPHY
Blade Runner 2049
Darkest Hour
Dunkirk
Mudbound
The Shape of Water

WILL WIN: Blade Runner 2049 because Roger Deakins is a legend and there's a lot of push for him now. If he doesn't get it though, it'll go to Shape of Water.

MY CHOICE: Blade Runner 2049. I liked that Dunkirk was shot on film in 70mm, but Roger Deakins is a legend.

ANIMATED FEATURE
The Boss Baby
The Breadwinner 
Coco
Ferdinand
Loving Vincent

This category is the worst. Ferdinand gets nominated?

WILL WIN: Coco. Because Pixar.
MY CHOICE: Of the nominees, Coco.

SNUBBED: THE LEGO BATMAN MOVIE! The Lego Movie was snubbed when it came out, and I kind of laughed because I didn't love that movie. And I excused it because it had live action elements. This year also had the Lego Ninjago Movie, which also had live action and wasn't as good. But The Lego Batman Movie was the best animated movie of the year, clever and fun and technically interesting. It's also arguably the best superhero movie of the year and the best Batman movie ever made. But the Academy hates both Lego and superheroes, so they shut it out for mediocre films.

SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Mary J. Blige - Mudbound
Allison Janney - I, Tonya
Lesley Manville - Phantom Thread
Laurie Metcalf - Lady Bird
Octavia Spencer - The Shape of Water

WILL WIN: Allison Janney because she's winning all the awards.
MY CHOICE: Laurie Metcalf. She's been criminally overlooked. If you only know her as Sheldon's mom on Big Bang Theory, you're missing out. Nothing wrong with Allison Janney, but it's kind of a one-level role. Laurie Metcalf is playing a similar role (they are both moms clashing with their daughters), but has more to do and there are more shades to her character.

SNUBBED: Hong Chau for Downsizing. While Downsizing wasn't a great movie, Hong Chau's performance as Ngoc Lan Tran, a Vietnamese refugee amputee, was very effecting. The Academy loves to pat itself on the back for inclusivity and all, but Asians rarely get nominated, and this was one of the better performances I saw this year. I also liked that her character was a Christian, and that wasn't looked down upon in the film.

SUPPORTING ACTOR
 Willem Dafoe - The Florida Project
Woody Harrelson - Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Richard Jenkins - The Shape of Water
Christopher Plummer - All the Money in the World
Sam Rockwell - Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

This is a weird category, particularly with the Christopher Plummer nomination. I'm not even sure it's for the performance. See, the film was already shot and finished with Kevin Spacey in the role. There were even trailers released and his name on the poster. Then when allegations against Spacey came out and Hollywood turned on him, the studio decided to cut him out of the movie and they quickly had to reshoot all his scenes with Christopher Plummer just a month before the film's release. I'm sure Plummer is fine, but I suspect the nomination is more a righteous indignation against Spacey.

WILL WIN: Sam Rockwell
MY CHOICE: Sam Rockwell

SNUBBED: Anyone in the superhero genre that gets overlooked. Patrick Stewart for Logan particularly, but I'd even have taken a Michael Rooker for Guardians 2. Comedy is difficult and rarely does it get nominated. Speaking of comedy, how about Ray Romano in The Big Sick, giving a solid nuanced performance? Or how about Apesanahkwat, who gave a very moving portrayal of a father in grief over the rape and murder of his daughter in Wind River? People love to complain about "Oscars so white", but they don't nominate Native American actors and no one bats an eye.

ACTRESS
Sally Hawkins - The Shape of Water
Frances McDormand - Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Margot Robbie - I, Tonya
Saoirse Ronan - Lady Bird
Meryl Streep - The Post

Stop nominating Meryl Streep!! They nominate her for nearly every movie now. This is the first performance of hers that I've liked for at least 15 years, but still she shouldn't be there.

WILL WIN: Frances McDormand. though with a teeny possibility it goes to Sally Hawkins since she's been nominated several times and never won, and the Academy loves to give Oscars when you get naked in a movie.

MY  CHOICE: Saoirse Ronan, because I found her totally believable. She reminded me so much of people I knew in high school. But really, I'd be okay with anyone except Streep here.

ACTOR
Timothee Chalamet - Call Me By Your Name
Daniel Day-Lewis - Phantom Thread
Daniel Kaluuya - Get Out
Gary Oldman - Darkest Hour
Denzel Washington - Roman J. Israel, Esq.

Again, this is a weird category. Day-Lewis has several Oscars already, and why is Denzel here for a mediocre movie no one saw?

WILL WIN: Gary Oldman, because he's winning all the awards. I love Gary Oldman, and he's been nominated before and not won, but I wouldn't have wanted him to get it for playing Churchill.

MY CHOICE: Of the nominees, I'm surprised to say I think I'd give it to Daniel Kaluuya. I didn't like Get Out, but the cast was good, and I think he's got my vote.

SNUB: Will Poulter for Detroit.  Maybe they would have tried to nominate him for Supporting instead. Detroit was that movie that was like a big deal when it came out and then it did and everyone shut up about it. But in forgetting the film (mostly rightly), we overlook Poulter who gives a great, terrifying performance as a disgusting racist cop.

BEST PICTURE
Call Me By Your Name
Darkest Hour
Dunkirk
Get Out
Lady Bird
Phantom Thread
The Post
The Shape of Water
Three Billboards Over Ebbing, Missouri

SNUBS: A lot of potential titles that could have gone here. Many are surprised that Wonder Woman didn't get in, but the third act is weaker so I can see that. Some thought Logan might have broken through the superhero ceiling. One of my favorites of the year, Baby Driver, isn't up there but again, it's a slick movie and I can see why. However, I truly think the Academy made a mistake in overlooking Wind River. They overlooked it in every single category and that's a shame. If it had come out later in the year they probably would have remembered it.

WILL WIN: Odds right now seem to be on The Shape of Water or Three Billboards. I suspect ultimately it goes to Three Billboards. There's a tiny chance Call Me By Your Name pulls it out, but they gave it to the indie gay movie last year and I'm not sure they'll do it again.

MY CHOICE: Lady Bird. It's the most authentic movie I saw all year and I highly recommend it. I wouldn't mind if Three Billboards won, though.